Monthly Archives: January 2013

After all the major Kentucky Derby prep races have been run, there will be two more chances for horses to collect points and qualify for the Run for the Roses. The new points system includes a “Wild Card” round; horses who win either of the following two races will earn 20 points, with eight points for second place, four points for third and two points for fourth.

This brings some interesting scenarios into play. Most of the top Kentucky Derby contenders will already be locked in by the time the Blue Grass Stakes are over. It’s been decades since the top thoroughbred horses were put on the track with so little time in between races. Trainers and handicappers alike prefer that horses get 3-4 weeks of rest before the Kentucky Derby. However for the third-tier contenders, a handful of points could be the difference between making it into the Derby and going home.

Desperate horses call for desperate measures. Our look at the Road to the Kentucky Derby concludes, fittingly enough, in Kentucky.

April 20: Lexington Stakes (1 1/16 Mile, Synthetic, Keeneland)

When Keeneland first opened in 1936, one of the first races on the card was the Lexington Stakes, then a six-furlong sprint open to 2-year-olds. Two years later, it became a simple overnight handicap race at 1 1/4 miles – no frills, no hype. There was even a period between 1973 and 1983 when this event was an overnight allowance race, albeit a fairly important one, called the Calumet Purse. It wasn’t until 1984 that the Lexington Stakes were reborn, earning Grade 3 status in 1986. From 1988 through 2010, this was a Grade 2 stakes race before reverting to Grade 3, where it remains today.

The purse for 2013 stands at $200,000, probably not enough to draw any contenders that aren’t on the Kentucky Derby bubble. The purse was as high as $350,000 before falling to its current level in 2011, prompting the demotion to Grade 3. Last year’s Lexington, won by All Squared Away, didn’t draw any Kentucky Derby starters. However the change in qualification from purse money to points may bring in some better competition this year.

Only one horse has ever won the Lexington Stakes and then the Kentucky Derby. That was Charismatic in 1999; he shattered the modern-day race record at an even 1:41. No other horse has managed to finish the Lexington in under 1:42. Charismatic had finished fourth behind General Challenge at the Santa Anita Derby and was a 31-1 long shot to win the Kentucky Derby, but he beat Menifee by a head, and he beat him again at the Preakness Stakes before breaking his leg just as he was about to win the Belmont Stakes and complete the Triple Crown.

Charismatic finished third and had successful surgery, so there was something of a happy ending to what the National Thoroughbred Racing Association called the “Moment of the Year” for 1999. Perhaps the Lexington can help produce another magic moment in 2013.

April 27: The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial (1 Mile, Dirt, Churchill Downs)

The Road to the Kentucky Derby finally ends at Churchill Downs with the Derby Trial Stakes. It’s the main event of the Opening Night card at Churchill Downs, a Grade 3 stakes race since 2000, and like the Lexington Stakes, it carries a purse of $200,000. Also like the Lexington Stakes, the Derby Trial couldn’t draw any Kentucky Derby contenders last year because of the relatively small prizes and the very small rest period in between.

The big difference between the two is the rich heritage behind the Derby Trial Stakes. It started back in 1924 when Black Gold won the inaugural Trial the week before claiming the 50th anniversary running of the Kentucky Derby. Citation won this race in 1948 en route to the Triple Crown. Hill Gail (1952), Dark Star (1953) and Tim Tam (1958) were all double champions at Churchill Downs.

This was back when the Trial was held the Tuesday before the Kentucky Derby, not the Saturday before. The switch was made in 1982, but by then, modern training methods had made this concession moot. It’s been nearly 40 years since a horse won the Kentucky Derby with just a week in between races – that was Cannonade in 1974.

So why would any top thoroughbreds bother signing up for the Derby Trial? They just might because it’s become a very useful prep race for the Preakness, which takes place exactly three weeks later, and is also the shortest of the Triple Crown races at 1 3/16 miles. Although the Trial hasn’t produced a Preakness winner since making the switch to Saturday, it has produced three second-place finishers: Alydeed (1992), Cherokee Run (1993) and Macho Again (2008).

Even better, the Derby Trial has produced two Belmont Stakes champions: Caveat (1983) and Creme Fraiche (1985). Don’t overlook this somewhat hidden gem of thoroughbred racing. Plus, you get an extra week to try out your mint julep recipe before you throw that Kentucky Derby party.

If you’re training a horse for the Kentucky Derby, do you go for maximum points on the second leg of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series? That might depend on how well your horse does in the earlier prep races. In theory, you could point your horse at one of the three March 30 events, then come back two weeks later and go for another 100 points at one of the two prep races on April 13. Of course, money also matters – both these races feature very large purses.

This is the first year of the Road to the Kentucky Derby point system, so we’re bound to see a few missteps along the way. Be that as it may, we’re also likely to see some very strong fields going at it as the Championship Series hits the final turn.

April 13: Arkansas Derby (1 1/8 Mile, Dirt, Oaklawn Park)

There’s nothing like a visit to Hot Springs, Ark. in April to get the juices flowing. Horses and horse lovers alike have been coming to Oaklawn Park since it opened in 1905, but it wasn’t until 1936 that the first Arkansas Derby was held with a princely sum of $5,000 (about $80,000 in today’s money) up for grabs. By the end of 1943, the purse was double that. By 1965, it was $50,000, and today, it stands at an even $1 million.

Still not impressed? How about $5 million? In 2004, Oaklawn Park created a special bonus for any horse that could win both the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby, and then go on to win the Kentucky Derby. Wouldn’t you know it, Smarty Jones did just that. It was a worthwhile investment for Oaklawn; the interest surrounding Smarty Jones helped lift the Arkansas Derby’s profile to new heights, and even more top Kentucky Derby contenders started coming to Hot Springs. By 2010, the Arkansas Derby was elevated from Grade 2 to Grade 1 status.

Aside from Smarty Jones, the only other Arkansas Derby champion to win the Kentucky Derby was Sunny’s Halo in 1983. However four champions (including Smarty Jones) went on to win the Preakness Stakes, and two Arkansas Derby winners doubled up at the Belmont Stakes. Not only that, but 1994 winner Concern also took the prestigious Breeders’ Cup Classic later that year. The 2012 Arkansas Derby champion, Bodemeister, finished second to I’ll Have Another at both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

Trainer Bob Baffert considers Oaklawn Park to be his second home, so we’re likely to see some of his horses entered into the Arkansas Derby, but which ones? Maybe not Power Broker or Flashback, who are pointed at the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park and might stay there awhile. We could end up seeing one of Baffert’s  lesser-known horses do well enough in the smaller Kentucky Derby prep races to make an appearance at the Arkansas Derby; Rolling Fog, Z Big Apple, War Academy and Super Ninety Nine have all generated some buzz with their early performances.

April 13: Blue Grass Stakes (1 1/8 Mile, Synthetic, Keeneland)

What’s this? Only $750,000 to the winner of the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes? Keeneland needs to get with the program. This race has been run since 1911 and has been an important Kentucky Derby prep race since the beginning – which makes sense, seeing as both Keeneland and Churchill Downs are located in Kentucky. No fewer than 11 horses have won the Blue Grass Stakes and then the Kentucky Derby:

1991: Strike the Gold
1979: Spectacular Bid
1972: Riva Ridge
1970: Dust Commander
1968: Forward Pass
1965: Lucky Debonair
1964: Northern Dancer
1963: Chateaugay
1959: Tomy Lee
1942: Shut Out
1926: Bubbling Over

In addition, another 12 entrants into the Blue Grass Stakes have gone on to win the Run for the Roses. Street Sense was the most recent after finishing second behind Dominican in 2007. However the most successful of them all was Whirlaway, the 1941 Triple Crown champion. He finished second behind Our Boots at the Blue Grass Stakes. Our Boots was the top 2-year-old in 1940, also beating Whirlaway at the Futurity Trial and the Futurity Stakes, but he could only manage eighth place the following year at the Kentucky Derby.

The 2012 Blue Grass Stakes winner was Dullahan, who came in third behind I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister at the Kentucky Derby. As we go to press, it remains to be seen who will wind up in Lexington for the 2013 running; there are only two other races at Keeneland on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, including the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity (already won by Joha) and the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes, which is a “Wild Card” race held the following week. That’s right, the Blue Grass Stakes is not the last stop before Louisville, but it just might be the most important of them all.

Once the Road to the Kentucky Derby has made its overseas visit to the United Arab Emirates, it’s back stateside for the remaining five races on the second leg of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series. The next three races will take horse lovers on a whirlwind tour of Louisiana, New York and California. Make sure to put sunscreen on your horse’s nose, by the way.

March 30: Louisiana Derby (1 1/8 Mile, Dirt, Fair Grounds Race Course)

This is the third of the three March 30 races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. It’s also the oldest, having its inaugural run in 1894 at the old Crescent City Race Course. Conveniently enough, Churchill Downs also owns the Fair Grounds Race Course, and they’ve used this corporate synergy to make the Louisiana Derby a top-flight prep race for the Kentucky Derby. In 2009, they moved the race from eight weeks before the Run for the Roses to five weeks. They also moved the distance from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles, and upped the purse from $600,000 to $750,000. The purse went up again the following year to $1 million.

Despite the long history and the recent upgrades, only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby: Black Gold (1924) and Grindstone (1996). The list of near-misses includes Master Derby, who finished fourth at the 1975 Kentucky Derby before winning the Preakness Stakes, and Risen Star, who was third at the 1988 Kentucky Derby before taking both the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes.

Last year’s Louisiana Derby was won by Hero of Order, a 109-1 long shot who didn’t even make it to Churchill Downs. Who will it be this year? The very early list of nominees includes Goldencents, who won the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot last year in Louisiana, and fellow Doug O’Neill horse He’s Had Enough. Mailbu High, Mylute and Departing are also on the list.

April 6: Wood Memorial Stakes (1 1/8 Mile, Dirt, Aqueduct)

The most important race of the year in New York should be producing more Kentucky Derby champions. However three of the last four Wood Memorial winners didn’t even make it to Churchill Downs. I Want Revenge (2009) had ligament damage, Eskendereya (2010) had a tissue injury and Toby’s Corner (2011) developed lameness in his left hind leg. Gemologist broke the streak last year by finishing 16th at the Run for the Roses, a disappointing result for the third favorite at 6-1.

These things happen. Before this dry spell, 11 horses won the Kentucky Derby after winning the Wood Memorial (inaugurated 1925), including four Triple Crown champions:

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus
1981: Pleasant Colony
1977: Seattle Slew
1976: Bold Forbes
1975: Foolish Pleasure
1946: Assault
1945: Hoop Jr.
1943: Count Fleet
1939: Johnstown
1931: Twenty Grand
1930: Citation

That list matches up pretty closely with the glory days of horse racing. Those days look like they’re back in New York thanks to recent state gambling measures that have revitalized the industry. We already know that Todd Pletcher is planning to bring Overanalyze to the Aqueduct; we’ll see who joins him in New York this April.

April 6: Santa Anita Derby (1 1/8 Mile, Dirt, Santa Anita)

Eventually, they’ll figure out how to clone horses and have them run on two separate tracks on the same day. That’s the only way horsemen will be able to avoid choosing between the Aqueduct and Santa Anita. That’s like having to choose between lager and ale.

When it comes to winning the Kentucky Derby, the Wood Memorial has been the more successful prep race. Nine horses have won the Santa Anita Derby and then the Kentucky Derby, or two fewer than at the Wood Memorial – although the Santa Anita Derby has “only” been run since 1935. However California has enjoyed more recent success, producing last year’s big winner, I’ll Have Another. Here’s the complete list:

2011: I’ll Have Another
1989: Sunday Silence
1988: Winning Colors
1978: Affirmed
1969: Majestic Prince
1965: Lucky Debonair
1955: Swaps
1954: Determine
1952: Hill Gail

Santa Anita has also drawn a plethora of top Kentucky Derby contenders in the new millennium. Point Given won the 2001 Santa Anita Derby before finishing fifth at the Kentucky Derby, then took both the Preakness and the Belmont. Brother Derek was the pre-race Kentucky Derby favorite in 2006 before drawing post position No. 18 and finishing in a dead heat with Jazil for fourth place. Pioneerof the Nile finished second behind Mine That Bird at the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

Although Goldencents and He’s Had Enough are on the early list of nominees for the Louisiana Derby, it’s much more likely that Goldencents will run at the Santa Anita Derby. He’s Had Enough could be joining him. Keep an eye on the newswires for further developments.

Now that we’ve got those 50-point Kentucky Derby prep races out of the way, it’s time for the big horses to come out and play. The second leg of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series gets underway March 30; each of these races is worth 100 points for the victor, 40 points for second place, 20 points for third and 10 points for fourth. Derby dreams will be realized and crushed by the time May rolls around.

It’s not just the points that increase on the second leg of the Championship Series. It’s also the money and the prestige. These seven races are among the most important events in thoroughbred racing, not just in North America, but anywhere in the world. The purses range from $750,000 to $2 million. That’ll buy a whole lot of curry combs.

If you want to bet on the Kentucky Derby, you’ll definitely want to pay attention to these seven races. With a little information, that’s money you could be putting into your pocket with a sharp bet.

March 30: Florida Derby (1 1/8 Mile, Dirt, Gulfstream Park)

Let’s start the bidding at $1 million. That’s the purse for the Grade 1 Florida Derby, the most important race of the season at Gulfstream Park. This race is held every year on the Saturday closest to the end of March/beginning of April. Historians, take note: this is not to be confused with the Florida Derby that ran from 1926 to 1937 before changing its name to the Flamingo Stakes. The new Florida Derby started in 1952 and has seen 12 winners go on to take first place at the Kentucky Derby. Here’s the list:

2008: Big Brown
2006: Barbaro
2001: Monarchos
1995: Thunder Gulch
1990: Unbridled
1984: Swale
1979: Spectacular Bid
1968: Forward Pass
1964: Northern Dancer
1961: Carry Back
1958: Tim Tam
1956: Needles

That’s a pretty impressive collection. However, the past four years haven’t been quite as kind to Florida Derby winners. Last year was particularly bad, as Take Charge Indy suffered a bone chip in his left front ankle during the Kentucky Derby and finished 19th. He was stalking in fourth place at the time of the injury, so who knows what might have happened otherwise.

There’s a very good chance we’ll see yet another horse win the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby this year. Trainer Todd Pletcher has the undefeated Shanghai Bobby penciled in for all three Kentucky Derby prep races at Gulfstream Park, starting with the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes on January 26 and moving on to the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 23. Bern Identity and Tulira Castle might join Shanghai Bobby at the Florida Derby.

March 30: UAE Derby (1 3/16 Mile, Synthetic, Meydan Racecourse)

What the UAE Derby lacks in tradition, it more than makes up for in money. The United Arab Emirates are one of the richest countries in the world, awash in oil revenues and populated mostly by foreign workers and assorted Western expats. Horses willing to make the trip to the beautiful Meydan Racecourse will be competing for a purse of $2 million.

They’ll also have to deal with the Tapeta Footing surface – jockeys refer to it as “sticky,” leaving the less powerful horses sapped of energy as the finish line approaches. That line takes a while to reach; the UAE Derby is the only 1 3/16 mile race (9.5 furlongs) on the entire Road to the Kentucky Derby. That’s just half a furlong shorter than the Run for the Roses. We’ll soon see who has the stamina to compete at these distances.

The first UAE Derby was held in 2000 at the old Nad Al Sheba Racecourse, which was rebuilt and reopened in 2010 as Meydan Racecourse. The race earned Grade 2 status in 2002 and has been run at various distances over the years, settling on its current distance when Meydan first opened. We have yet to see a UAE Derby champion go on to win the Kentucky Derby; it’s only been very recently that the Emirates were considered a viable destination for Kentucky Derby contenders. Daddy Long Legs won the 2012 UAE Derby before pulling up and finishing last at the Run for the Roses.

We suspect the 2013 field will be much stronger. UAE-based Godolphin Racing, which has produced seven of the 13 UAE Derby champions, is expected to return this year with Fortify. Among the reported possible entrants joining him, in alphabetical order, are Artigiano, Ayaar, Battle Of Marengo, First Cornerstone, Lines Of Battle and Snowboarder.

Our look at the biggest prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby continues with the final three races on the first leg of the Championship Series. Each of these races will hand out 50 points to the winning horse. We begin in Arkansas, where trainer Bob Baffert has enjoyed plenty of success in recent years.

March 16: Rebel Stakes (1 1/16 Mile, Dirt, Oaklawn Park)

Oaklawn Park is a great place for trainers who have several potential Kentucky Derby contenders on their hands – like Baffert, for instance. The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes is the second of a series of three Derby preps at Oaklawn, starting with the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes and finishing with the prestigious Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. If you can make it through all three races, you’re well on your way to Churchill Downs.

That’s a big if. Baffert-trained horses have won each of the last three Rebel Stakes; Lookin at Lucky was the most successful, taking the 2010 Rebel before winning the Preakness Stakes and earning Horse of the Year honors. However, Lookin at Lucky only ran one other Kentucky Derby prep, finishing third at the Santa Anita Derby and settling for sixth at the Run for the Roses. The Factor (2011) was not entered into the Kentucky Derby after a disappointing seventh at the Arkansas Derby. Secret Circle (2012) had to miss the Kentucky Derby after coming down with sesamoiditis following his second-place finish behind Bodemeister – another Baffert horse – at the Arkansas Derby.

This year, “Bullet Bob” has a number of fringe Kentucky Derby contenders on his hands. It’s possible that Den’s Legacy will make an appearance at the Rebel after finishing third to Violence at the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity and second to Goldencents at the Grade 3 Sham Stakes.

March 23: Spiral Stakes (1 1/8 Mile, Synthetic, Turfway Park)

Now we’re getting serious. Starting with the Spiral Stakes, every race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is at least 1 1/8 mile. Front-running horses that don’t have the stamina to compete at this distance will be weeded out. This Grade 3 event (downgraded from Grade 2 in 2011) has produced two Kentucky Derby champions: Lil E. Tee in 1992 and Animal Kingdom in 2011.

The most impressive winner at the Spiral Stakes, however, was 1991 champion Hansel. He set the track record for 1 1/8 miles of 1:46.6, then went on to win both the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes on his way to Horse of the Year honors. Hansel was the favorite at the 1991 Kentucky Derby, but seemed to have trouble with the distance and finished 10th.

Other horses that won a Triple Crown race after taking the Spiral Stakes: Summer Squall, who won the 1990 Preakness after finishing second to Unbridled at the Kentucky Derby, and Prairie Bayou, who did the same in 1993 behind Sea Hero. Serena’s Song was the first filly to win the Spiral Stakes in 1995; she also won the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, the female counterpart to the Preakness.

It remains to be seen as we go to press which horses will attend the 2013 Spiral Stakes, but we do have early word that Rydilluc (trained by Gary Contessa, ridden by Edgar Prado) could make an appearance after winning an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on January 5.

March 24: Sunland Derby (1 1/8 Mile, Dirt, Sunland Park)

Sunland Park in New Mexico is a great place for jockeys to get their start, too. Pat Valenzuela earned his first career win here before riding Sunday Silence to victory at the 1989 Kentucky Derby. After that, Jerry Bailey was a two-time Kentucky Derby winner; in 1993 aboard Sea Hero and again in 1996 aboard Grindstone. Miguel Hernandez will try to add his name to the list this year. Sunland Park’s top-earning jockey for the past two seasons had to settle for sixth place at the 2012 Sunland Derby as Tequila Factor finished well behind Daddy Nose Best. Show Some Magic could do just that in 2013 after winning the Riley Allison Futurity on December 23.

The Sunland Derby has only been around since 2003 and first became a grade 3 stakes race in 2010, so there isn’t much in the way of history for horseplayers to use in their Kentucky Derby betting. Thor’s Echo was the most notable winner; he took the Sunland Derby in 2005 for trainer Doug O’Neill, and then proved to be a champion 4-year-old sprinter, winning the Breeders’ Cup Sprint as well as the Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash. Daddy Nose Best never won again after taking last year’s Sunland Derby, finishing 10th behind I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister at the Kentucky Derby and ninth behind the same two horses at the Preakness.

Back in the olden days of horse racing – before 2013 – the Kentucky Derby chose its field of up to 20 horses based on their earnings at graded stakes races. There were well over 150 such races from which to choose; the most prestigious Kentucky Derby prep races also had the largest purses, thus drawing the best thoroughbreds on the circuit.

The prestige is still there, but now the incentive is points instead of cash. The Road to the Kentucky Derby has been narrowed down to 36 graded stakes for 2012-13 with the possibility of more races in the future. The points go up as Derby Day approaches. Winning an event that’s part of the Kentucky Derby Prep Season will earn a horse 10 points. That rises to 50 points for the first leg of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series, and 100 points for the second leg.

Naturally, the races that have been traditionally viewed as the most important prep races for the Kentucky Derby are now included in the Championship Series. The more you know about these races, the better prepared you will be to bet on the Kentucky Derby. So let’s take a closer look at the home stretch of the Road to the Kentucky Derby, starting with the race that made Street Sense a leading Derby favorite.

March 9: Tampa Bay Derby (1 1/16 Mile, Dirt, Tampa Bay Downs)

The Tampa Bay Derby has been run since 1981; it earned grade 3 status in 2002 and was promoted to grade 2 in 2011. It was in 2007 that the Tampa Bay Derby had its breakthrough moment. Going into that race, Street Sense was one of the more compelling Kentucky Derby contenders after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by an impressive 10 lengths. However, no Juvenile winner at that time had gone on to win the Run for the Roses, and Street Sense was the second favorite at 6-5 behind Any Given Saturday at 3-5.

This was also Street Sense’s first race as a 3-year-old. He only ran two Derby prep races after his juvenile season, which was again unusual – most winning horses put in three preps before the big race. The previous two Kentucky Derby winners with only two prep races under their saddles were Sunny’s Halo in 1983 and Jet Pilot in 1947.

In the end, Street Sense and Any Given Saturday battled down to the wire, with Street Sense winning by a nose. The winning time of 1:43:11 is still the time to beat at the Tampa Bay Derby, not to mention the track record for any graded stakes race at 1 1/16 miles. Street Sense went on to finish second at the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes before winning the Kentucky Derby.

As we go to press, it appears that Uncaptured will be part of the field for the 2013 Tampa Bay Derby. Purple Egg is also being considered after going 3-for-3 in his juvenile campaign.

March 9: San Felipe Stakes (1 1/16 Mile, Dirt, Santa Anita)

Even if we knew how to teleport, thoroughbreds need time in between races to rest, recover and prepare. So trainers have to make a decision between the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. It’s a decision that’s based partly on geography and partly on competition; horses that have been spending most of their time on the California circuit will naturally be drawn to Santa Anita.

The San Felipe Stakes began life in 1935 as a six-furlong sprint called the San Felipe Handicap, and was originally limited to colts and geldings 3 years old and up. The distance grew over the years, and in 1952, the race was set at its current 1 1/16 miles for all 3-year-old horses. In 1954, Determine became the first horse to win the San Felipe Stakes and the Kentucky Derby – as well as the first gray horse to win the Run for the Roses.

Things were relatively quiet at the San Felipe Stakes for the next 25 years. There was 1964 winner Hill Rise, who was favored at the Kentucky Derby but finished second to Northern Dancer. However, it wasn’t until 1978 that Affirmed arrived in town, winning the San Felipe in his first ever graded stakes appearance. Affirmed continued his winning ways, taking the Santa Anita Derby and the Hollywood Derby prep races, and then upsetting Alydar at the Kentucky Derby en route to claiming the Triple Crown.

The other San Felipe Stakes winners to become Kentucky Derby champions were Sunday Silence in 1989 and Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. It appears likely that Goldencents will make an appearance at the 2013 race after winning the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on January 5, beating Den’s Legacy and Manando over one mile.

Our look at the recent winners on the Road to the Kentucky Derby continues with the fallout from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, won by Shanghai Bobby as he extended his winning streak to 5-0. In this section, we cover the remainder of the 2-year-old races, and we finish with the first Kentucky Derby prep of 2013, the January 5 Sham Stakes. In thoroughbred racing, the age of a horse is determined by the calendar year, so all the 2-year-olds became 3-year-olds on New Year’s Day.

November 17, 2012: Grade 3 $1-million Delta Jackpot Stakes (1 1/16 Mile, Dirt, Delta Downs)

Also known as the Delta Downs Jackpot, this race saw Goldencents pick up his first victory on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. He went into the race as the second favorite at 5-2 behind Bern Identity, who had won the Jean Lafitte Stakes and was pegged at 9-5. Goldencents took the lead as he often does, stalked by the longest shot in the nine-horse field, Heaven’s Runway (67-1). Bern Identity rallied down the stretch, but Goldencents had no problem keeping him at bay and winning by 1 3/4 lengths. Mylute, a 25-1 shot, finished another 1 1/4 lengths behind in third.

This victory convinced trainer Doug O’Neill to point Goldencents at the Kentucky Derby. “He had a clean trip and kept on going,” O’Neill told reporters after the win. “He came back awesome. He came back in great shape, and the future is bright with him.”

November 24, 2012: Grade 2 $250,000 Remsen Stakes (1 1/8 Mile, Dirt, Aqueduct)

Named after Colonel Joremus Remsen, who led the American forces at the Battle of Long Island in 1776, the Remsen Stakes has produced four Kentucky Derby champions: Northern Dancer (1964), Pleasant Colony (1981), Go for Gin (1994) and Thunder Gulch (1995). Overanalyze will try to join the list after winning the 2012 Remsen in a photo finish over Normandy Invasion. Coupled as the 8-5 favorite with fellow Todd Pletcher horse Micromanage, Overanalyze pressed the front-running Delhomme all the way to the 1/16 pole before taking over. Normandy Invasion rallied and briefly held the lead, but Overanalyze re-rallied for the narrow victory. Delhomme settled for third.

“He’s a horse that won first time out going wire-to-wire at Saratoga in 0:57 1/5,” Pletcher told reporters when asked about Overanalzye following the Remsen. “He’s got speed and the ability to carry it. He’s a ratable horse, tractable, smart horse.”

November 24, 2012: Grade 2 $150,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (1 1/16 Mile, Dirt, Churchill Downs)

Uncaptured shook off his disappointing result at the Grey Stakes, making the move south to Churchill Downs and winning both the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes (Overanalyze was third) and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Track Rocker set the pace at the beginning, although Uncaptured was fast out of the gate and could have overtaken him at any point. That point came at the far turn, as Uncaptured surged ahead with Frac Daddy gaining the whole time after stalking the leaders. The two horses battled to the wire, exchanging the lead before Uncaptured making the last move and winning by a neck. Dewey Square took third place.

Trainer Mark Casse was beaming when all was said and done. “Honestly, at the eighth pole I thought he was beat,” Casse admitted. “Very seldom does a 2-year-old get headed, be on the inside and come back and win. He showed his gameness today.”

December 15, 2012: Grade 1 $750,000 CashCall Futurity (1 1/16 Mile, Synthetic, Hollywood Park)

Formerly known as the Hollywood Futurity, 11 horses competed on the Cushion Track at this race, with Violence going off as the 6-5 favorite following his maiden victory and another at the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes. Make it 3-for-3, as Violence took the CashCall by 1 1/4 lengths over Fury Kapcori. Really Mr. Greely set the early pace with Violence stalking, then passing at the eighth pole and winning going away. Den’s Legacy was third.

“I had a lot of confidence in this colt,” jockey Javier Castellano told The USA Today. “He is so calm and handles himself very professionally. I think he is a special horse and I am really looking forward to big times.”

January 5, 2013: Grade 3 $100,000 Sham Stakes (1 Mile, Dirt, Santa Anita)

Another race, another win for Goldencents. He took the points lead on the Road to the Kentucky Derby with an easy win at the Sham Stakes, going off as the 2-5 favorite in a field of five horses. Manando set the pace; Goldencents rated behind, started his push near the quarter pole, then caught the tiring Manando in the final furlong and won by 1 1/2 lengths over Den’s Legacy. Manando held on for third place.

“When we turned for home, it felt like it was going to be a tough battle,” jockey Kevin Krigger admitted to reporters. “But by the time we got about 50 yards from the eighth pole, I could feel him gathering himself up to make that huge surge. He galloped out real good. I can’t complain.”

As we mentioned in our guide on how to bet on the Kentucky Derby, the best predictor we have available is how the horses performed in their races leading up to the big one – preferably races that are also on dirt, and as close to 1 1/4 miles as possible.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the key races that our contenders have run. We’ll start with their juvenile performances; the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old was Apollo back in 1882, so these results are important. Keep in mind as well that juveniles usually start their careers at much shorter distances, building up from around five furlongs for a Maiden Special Weight victory to maybe seven furlongs, then a mile, and then a little bit longer.

We’ll also simplify things by looking specifically at the races that make up the Road to the Kentucky Derby – not including the first event, the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket Racecourse in England. That race is one mile on turf and doesn’t really belong with the others.

September 29, 2012: Grade 1 $250,000 FrontRunner Stakes (1 1/16 Mile, Dirt, Santa Anita)

Power Broker was the first horse to pick up 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby – and earn automatic entry into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November. In this race, formerly known as the Norfolk Stakes, Power Broker was the third favorite at 5-1 behind Know More (9-5) and Carving (9-2). Those two horses set the pace while Power Broker stalked in third; going into the stretch, Power Broker went past on the outside and won by a comfortable 6.5 lengths. Know More took second and Capo Bastone took third.

October 6, 2012: Grade 1 $400,000 Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (1 1/16 Mile, Synthetic, Keeneland)

This was another “Win and You’re In” prep race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and it was Joha taking that spot with a wire-to-wire victory as the 17-2 fifth choice. The pre-race favorite was Tizracer at 3-1, coming off an impressive 10-length victory at his maiden. Tizracer tried to keep up with Joha, but faded going into the stretch and finished 12th. Dynamic, the fourth choice going into this race at 15-2, put in a late rally but finished a length behind Joha in second. Java’s War took third place. The synthetic surface in this case was Polytrack.

October 6, 2012: Grade 1 $400,000 Champagne Stakes (1 Mile, Dirt, Belmont)

The next horse to qualify for the Juvenile was Shanghai Bobby, who extended his winning streak to 4-0 with a strong performance in a six-horse field that was dripping with quality. Shanghai Bobby went off as the 8-5 favorite; Archwarrior was the second choice at 3-1, followed by Goldencents at 7-2. All three horses had won their previous races before entering the Champagne Stakes. It was Goldencents taking the early lead, pressed by Shanghai Bobby until the stretch drive, when Shanghai Bobby eased into first and then took off to win by five lengths. Goldencents was second; Fortify was another length behind in third.

October 7, 2012: Grade 1 $200,000 Grey Stakes (1 1/16 Mile, Synthetic, Woodbine, Ontario)

Once again running on the Polytrack, the Grey Stakes produced the first major upset on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Uncaptured was the heavy 2-5 favorite in a field of only five horses, but it was River Seven taking the victory at 7-1 odds. Uncaptured’s jockey, Patrick Husbands, claimed a foul occurred during the race, but the result was upheld. This was Uncaptured’s first attempt at running anything longer than seven furlongs.

River Seven stalked behind the pace-setting Five Iron, then squeezed between Five Iron and Tesseron to win by 3/4 of a length. Tesseron came in second, followed by Indiano Jones and Five Iron, with Uncaptured bringing up the rear. It’s expected the Ontario-bred River Seven will be pointed at the Queen’s Plate rather than the Kentucky Derby.

November 3, 2012: Grade 1 $2-million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1 1/16 Mile, Dirt, Santa Anita)

This is easily the most important thoroughbred race on the calendar for 2-year-olds. Winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile will vault you into the top tier of contenders for the Kentucky Derby, and that’s exactly what happened when Shanghai Bobby, the 6-5 pre-race favorite, picked up the victory in an epic battle with 20-1 long shot He’s Had Enough.

The early pace was set by Title Contender; Shanghai Bobby pressed, and then took the lead on the far turn. He’s Had Enough moved up from seventh and caught up to Shanghai Bobby at the eighth pole, but it was Shanghai Bobby holding off the challenge and winning by a head. Capo Bastone took third place in the field of nine horses. Power Broker, the second favorite at 5-2 after his win at the FrontRunner Stakes, had to settle for fifth place. Joha raced in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes instead and finished eighth.