Monthly Archives: March 2014

As we draw closer and closer to the annual Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs, it’s becoming apparent that the rigors of the Kentucky Derby stakes season is beginning to take its toll. A number of quality colts have pulled up lame, and like in the case of one particular pre-Derby favorite, have been ruled out of the big race entirely.

Honor Code Out of the Derby

What looked to be Shug McGaughey’s best chance at repeating as Kentucky Derby champion took a major hit recently when his prized horse – Honor Code – was ruled out of the Triple Crown with a slight ligament tear.

McGaughey told the New York Racing Association’s media department that Honor Code suffered the injury to the upper suspensory ligament in his right hind leg, adding that it would heal properly and that trainers would re-evaluate the injury in two months’ time.

Honor Code was a hot favorite earlier in the Kentucky Derby betting season after a scintillating showing, capped off with a brilliant win over another Derby favorite, Cairo Price, at the Remsen at Aqueduct. Honor code also finished second to another strong runner, Havana, in his second start of the season at the Grade I Champagne at Belmont.

Injuries were an issue for Honor Code throughout the season, however. His debut was delayed by bruising in his hind ankles. He’s been in and out of action for the past few weeks, running a half mile in 48.12 prior to the $1 Million Wood Memorial at Aqueduct – a race he’ll no longer run, obviously.

As mentioned, McGaughey won last year’s Derby, the first of his career, with Orb – and many thought Honor Code was good enough to get McGaughey in the roses this year as well. McGaughey is now without a runner in this year’s Derby.

Chitu Emerges

Another talented trainer with Derby experience isn’t suffering the same fate as McGaughey.

Bob Baffert, who last won the Kentucky Derby in 2002 with War Emblem, has found himself another quality contender for this year’s race – Chitu, a horse owned by veteran showjumper Susan Chu. Chitu captured the $800,000 Sundland Derby  at Sundland Park recently (widely regarded as the top race at the top track in New Mexico), giving Baffert yet another option for success at Churchill Downs this spring, and definitely one to watch in terms of online horse odds.

It’s still unclear if Chitu will head to Churchill – he’ll need to stockpile points and is pretty inexperienced; following the race, assistant trainer Jim Barnes said the decision will ultimately be deferred to Baffert. If Chitu does go, though, watch out – the horse won the Sundland in impressive fashion, beating a strong competitor in Midnight Hawk by two lengths at the wire, picking up a cool 50 Derby points in the process.

Speaking of Midnight Hawk, guess what? It’s yet another Baffert horse! Yes, Baffert’s colts finished one-two at Sundland, and the legendary trainer (who wasn’t in attendance) was reported to be thrilled with how the stablemates competed against one another. This could mean big things for the Baffert camp come May 2 at Churchill Downs.

The annual Run for the Roses continues to draw closer, which means each stakes race gets more and more important in terms of stockpiling points for Churchill Downs positioning.

Recently, the always-popular $600,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park was run. There were 50-20-10-5 points up for grabs to the top four finishers. This race has traditionally been a good testing field for colts to see where they’re at just a few months prior to the Kentucky Derby and which future races they should be entered in.

Big Hoppertunity

The story from this year’s Rebel was Hoppertunity, as owner Mike Pegram walked away a winner after Hoppertunity captured one of the closest races of the year.

Hoppertunity won an intense four-horse battle down the final furlong, edging out the likes of Tapiture, Ride On Curlin and Strong Mandate in a race that saw plenty of bumping and jostling down the final stretch.

The race was so close and so physical, in fact, that there was a steward’s inquiry into the stretch run – but the three Oaklawn Stewards decided to let the final standings stay set, noting that all four horses were “straightening out into the stretch.”

Pegram was thrilled with the response as there were 50 Kentucky Derby points up for grabs for finishing first at the Rebel. By taking all 50, Hoppertunity bolted to second overall on the leaderboard with 55 (trailing only Samraat, who tops all with 60 points).

Bettors also scored big too. The Bob Baffert-trained Hoppertunity had 10/1 morning line odds going into the race. Tapiture sat higher on the online horse odds at 9/5.

Tapiture and several other horses received major Kentucky Derby points as well. Tapiture now has 42 points – good for seventh overall – while Ride On Curlin now sits 14^th (with 15 points) after earning 10 points for his third-place finish.

Strong Mandate, who earned five points from his fourth-place finish now sits 20^th (with 11 points) on the leaderboard.

Pletcher, Baffert Going to New Mexico

Two of the biggest and best trainers in the game will have their colts on hand at the Sunland Park Derby in New Mexico.

Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert will each run a pair of horses in the grade 3 stakes (with an $800,000 tag), it was announced. Baffert will run Midnight Hawk – who rose to prominence earlier this season by capturing the Grade 2 Stakes in San Felipe – and Chitu, who recently put forth a solid second-place showing at the Grade 2 Lewis.

Pletcher confirmed that Commissioner and Global Strike will both run in New Mexico. Both have shown well this season and won separate races at Gulfstream Park. As for jockeys, Pletcher has indicated that John Velasquez will ride Commissioner while Javier Castellano has the mount on Global Strike.

Four months is an eternity in thoroughbred racing. For proof of that look at the rise of Cairo Prince, the current Kentucky Derby betting favorite for May’s 140th Run for the Roses at storied Churchill Downs.

The Pool 1 Kentucky Derby online horse odds were released in late November 2013 and Cairo Prince was a 26-1 shot when they closed. The Kiaran McLaughlin-trained Cairo Prince scored his maiden win in early October at Belmont Park. He followed with a decisive victory in the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes and then finished second by a nose to Honor Code in the Grade 2 Remsen on November 30, both at Aqueduct.

Cairo Prince’s 3-year-old debut was a smashing success as he won the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. The son of Pioneerof the Nile beat a strong field by 5 ¾ lengths. Not surprisingly, Cairo Prince jumped to 13-1 on the Pool 2 Kentucky Derby horse racing odds in early February. Honor Code was the 12-1 betting favorite. The Pool 3 odds ran from February 27-March 1 and Cairo Prince jumped into the favored role at 9-1.

Honor Code is now 11-1 for those who bet on the Kentucky Derby. The Shug McGaughey-trained colt and son of AP Indy has yet to run in 2014, with McGaughey targeting the mid-March Rebel Stakes for his 3-year-old debut. Honor Code missed some training time with hind ankle bruising, so he wasn’t able to run in the February 22 Fountain of Youth Stakes as planned. Top Billing is also 11-1.

First Derby for Sadler?

Candy Boy is 12-1 on the Pool 3 Derby odds. Candy Boy, trained by John W. Sadler, debuted as a 3-year-old with a victory in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita in early February. That win helped rocket Candy Boy from 32-1 in the Pool 2 Derby odds. Shared Belief, a gelding, was 14-1 in Pool 2 and is now 15-1. The horse is unbeaten in three career starts, including beating out Candy Boy in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity in December.

One horse who has come out of nowhere – not listed on Pool 1 or 2 – is Bob Baffert’s Bayern. The colt has two wins in 2014. On February 13 in his first race at mile, Bayern dominated the Taurus Purse, an allowance for 3-year-olds, winning by 15 lengths. Bayern is 17-1.

High-Five

Only five horses have been separately listed in all three pools toward the 2014 Derby: Cairo Prince, Honor Code, Noble Moon, Shared Belief and Strong Mandate. The latter colt was 18-1 on the Pool 3 Kentucky Derby betting odds, a slight rise from Pool 2. Strong Mandate debuted as a 3-year-old by finishing second to Tapiture in the Grade 2 Southwest Stakes. That win helped jump Tapiture from 38-1 in Pool 2 to 17-1 in Pool 3. Tapiture and Strong Mandate are both likely to run next in the Rebel Stakes.

The overall favorite in the Pool 3 odds was the “all others” option at 3-1. It was the favorite in Pools 1 and 2 as well. The final Pool 4 odds will be released from March 27-29 in the Kentucky Derby betting news.

There were a number of big developments on the Kentucky Derby horse racing odds front recently, as a several would-be contenders either solidified their chances at the Run for the Roses or saw those chances get considerably slimmer. Here’s a look at some of the horses making noise.

Tough Times for Indianapolis

Another contender from the Bob Baffert stable has fallen on hard times as of late.

Indianapolis, who shot to the top of several must-watch lists after winning his first two starts, has been slowed down by throat issues and has a cloudy future regarding his next race. Baffert said he’s uncertain when Indianapolis will run next. The colt was expected to take part in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita last month, but was scratched due to a cough which was, essentially, the start of his throat issues.

To compound matters, Indianapolis has been training in rainy weather, and that’s kept him from returning to the track in the hopes of regaining his early form. Baffert said all Indianapolis has been able to do thus far is light jogging – not the kind of updates you want in terms of Kentucky Derby betting news.

All that said, Baffert refused to rule Indianapolis out of Churchill Downs, saying that the fate of a horse “can literally change overnight.” That’s an important lesson to note when it comes to deciphering online horse odds.

Bond Holder Out of Tampa Bay Derby

Doug O’Neill’s Bond Holder – another horse that looked to be in solid shape to run in this year’s Kentucky Derby – has been ruled out of the Tampa Bay Derby with a foot injury.

Bond Holder shot to prominence with a win at the FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita early in this year’s campaign, but has been sidelined ever since sustaining a minor injury during a flight from California a few weeks ago. The plane went through some turbulence; Bond Holder tweaked his foot and was subsequently scratched from the Risen Star Stakes as a precautionary measure.

O’Neill updated the situation on Twitter this week, saying Bond Holder is “walking sound.” The big issue now is whether or not the colt will recover with enough time to rack up some Derby points – his lone win at FrontRunner got him on the board, but it was Bond Holder’s only victory in seven starts. He also finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and at the CashCall Futurity, which were good results but hardly massive point gainers.

For those who bet on Kentucky Derby, here’s a look at the latest point leaders:

60 – Samraat

53 – Intense Holiday

50 – Wildcat Red

24 – Alban, Uncle Sigh

22 – Tapiture

20 – Vicar’s in Trouble, General a Rod

14 – Havana, Cairo Prince, Honor Code

12 – Tamarando , Midnight Hawk

11 – Bond Holder

10 – Rise Up, We Miss Artie, Candy Boy, In Trouble, Noble Moon, Ami’s Holiday, Cleburne, Tanzanite Cat, Top Billing

Know when Kentucky Derby betting season is heating up?

When horses start to clinch spots in the annual Run for the Roses.

That’s where we’re at, folks, as a number of horses racked up crucial points over the last stretch of races, some solidifying their chances for the big race, with one colt – who’s been blowing away the competition thus far – booking his spot at Churchill Downs.

Samraat Clinches in Style

At this point, it’s looking more and more like Samraat will be the colt to beat, for those looking to bet on Kentucky Derby.

The New York-bred horse, trained by Rick Violette, continued his assault on the field with a win in the $500,000 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. With the win, Samraat improved to a perfect five-for-five in Derby points races this season, clinching a spot in the Derby field in the process.

Because Samraat’s clinched so early, Violette has an interesting conundrum on his hands – keep racing the horse, ensuring peak form, or rest Samraat, and avoid injury prior to the Derby.

Violette said he’d “be lying” if he said he wasn’t already thinking about the Derby, and why not? Jockeyed by Jose Ortiz (from My Meadowview Farm), Samraat didn’t look as though he had the moxie to capture the Gotham midway through the race, only to turn it on with a sweeping move in the final turn to make it a three-horse race, with Uncle Sign and In Trouble.

Samraat took it on the outside, though, beating Uncle Sigh by a neck and In Trouble by a half-length. On what was a fast track, Samraat clocked a 1:44.14 (on a 1 1/16 size track, no less) – a speed that caught the eye of many onlookers.

As for the future and online horse odds, Violette said Samraat will head to Florida to train for a while, but suggested the colt will come back to Aqueduct shortly for the $1 million Wood Memorial. The Wood could very well be Samraat’s last race pre-Derby.

Tough News for Havana

One of the horses that showed early promise in the season is now facing a major uphill battle just to crack the Derby field.

Havana, trained by the legendary Todd Pletcher, was held out of the $200,000 Swale at Gulfstream recently due to a quarter crack in his right front foot.

Havana has displayed great form in a limited scope this season. He first burst onto the scene at Saratoga last season, then capturing a stirring victory over Honor Code at the Champagne at Belmont in his second career start.

From there, Havana continued to impress in terms of Kentucky Derby horse racing odds by taking a lead down the stretch at the Juvenile, only to fall short of surprise winner New Year’s Day. The colt showed good pace on the day and was supposed to be ridden by Hall of Fame jockey John Velasquez moving forward, so big things were expected.

Now, Pletcher can only hope the horse will get healthy in time to run a few stakes races, and get some points under his belt in a last-ditch Derby push.